Before I get into the whole Kamikaze Plus thing I want to talk about the Nasdaq Composite index. This index goes back to the early 1970s so was born into a ferocious bear market.This is a very long term chart – each candlestick represents 12 months. This makes buy and sell signals on the moving averages I use rare. In half a century there have only been three sell signals though there would have been one in 72/73 if the averages could have been calculated that far back.
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We are looking at four sell signals and four buy signals in 50 years. Two things stand out. The power of the long term secular uptrend and the two severe bear markets coming in quick succession in the first decade of the 21st century. My guess is that such a brutal period for investors has sent the scene for a massive bull market, one which is not over yet.
This is all happening in America. The only other index I can find delivering a similar performance is India’s Nifty 50. I don’t do Indian shares though looking at this chart maybe I should. India has taken over from China as the global growth star with GDP growth for 2023/24 estimated at 7.3pc. At the same time it’s population now exceeds that of China and is still growing fast.
This has not grown unnoticed by US companies. Netflix only has 6.5m Indian subscribers but sees huge potential. Ted Sarandos, co-CEO of Netflix feels that the company has finally cracked the Indian market and sees potential for 100m subscribers in India. it’s difficulty is dealing with crackpot Hindus whose gods apparently take offence at any mention of MEAT! They had to pull a film which depicted a Brahmin eating meat and suggesting a Hindu deity ate meat. These people demonise ‘untouchables’. How dare they be so hypocritical. There are over 200m of these wretched people in India. Oh God, I hate religion, to coin a phrase.
Of course, ranting about religion is not really the point in an investment publication. Netflix shares recently gave a buy signal on my system and have built a massive consolidation.
The analysts are keen.
Netflix Winning the Streaming Wars
Netflix is poised to strengthen its position as the leading streaming service due to changes in the last 18 months that include evolving industry dynamics, talent strikes and an investor focus on profitability. “These changes (e.g., reducing content spend/output, increasing third-party licensing) have been a tacit acknowledgement that not all media companies will be able to achieve Netflix’s global reach and scale in streaming,” BofA Research Analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich says in a note. “It is becoming increasingly clear that Netflix has won the ‘streaming wars.'” Since Netflix can now buy more from outside providers it won’t have to finance as much new production and can instead spend on established content, Reif Ehrlich says. BofA raises its price target to $585 from $525.Dow Jones Newswires, 17 January 2024
Strategy – Chasing Momentum
First a reminder about Kamikaze investing. This is when you invest on five times leverage, in CFDs or Spread Bets, then when you get a margin call you top up your account and and when the share moves up creating spare equity you invest that, times five, in more shares.
It is an unbelievably aggressive way of investing that is best kept for strong bull markets. Try it and it will blow your socks off. There are already quite a few candidates for this approach that I have been alerting in recent issues. As an investing style it is as different from regular ISA-style investing as a Ferrari is from a Smart car or even a bicycle.
So Jesus, you are wondering, what the hell is Kamikaze Plus! What could be even more explosive?
You add in a process which I think of as surfing momentum, endlessly catching the latest wave. So you do all the above but you also keep switching from the weaker shares in your portfolio to the stronger ones. I started doing this in 2021 and began making money at an insane rate.
In effect what you are doing is sort-of mimicking QQQ3 with its daily rebalancing, which involves endlessly shifting exposure from weaker shares to stronger ones. I expect many of you are thinking this is a great way of making your stockbroker rich and that is certainly true. But it also means you get exposure to some spectacularly strongly shares. If you like it is another stock market game which you can play.
Advanced Micro Devices Boasts Explosive Chart Breakout
I just want to mention a chart which looks amazing. Advanced Micro Devices is a rocket-powered share, up 100 times since 2015, the whole of this staggering rise taking place under the leadership of Dr Lisa Su, who incredibly, is related to Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia. if she wan’t a woman I would definitely say she is the man! This is another perfect share with which to play Kamikaze games.
Reading AMD’s last earnings report it was all about innovation which is just what I want to see from my Innovation Portfolio companies and it is working.
Based on the rapid progress we are making with our AI road map execution and purchase commitments from cloud customers, we now expect Data Center GPU revenue to be approximately $400m in the fourth quarter and exceed $2bn in 2024 as revenue ramps throughout the year. This growth would make MI300 the fastest product to ramp to $1bn in sales in AMD history.Dr Lisa Su, CEO, Advanced Micro Devices, Q3 23, 31 October 2023
AMD is nowhere near matching the explosive growth being delivered by Nvidia but the shares and the business look full of promise.
Netflix. NFLX. Buy @ $480
Advanced Micro Devices. AMD. Buy @ $160