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Investors should not fear the obvious

May 18, 2023

It is easy to be too clever in the stock market. I always try to do the obvious partly on the grounds that if the phenomenon you are looking for is not obvious it is probably not happening. I like charts which are obviously strong and/ or have obvious chart breakouts. I like fundamentals that are obviously good like fast growth, great management and an exciting story. Last but not least I love shares in companies where something new and important is happening.

This is very much about the obvious although I do admit that like so many things hindsight makes stuff more obvious than it was at the time. It is obvious to us now that the First World War was a terrible thing and many young men lost their lives. When the war began they had no idea it was going to be so dreadful and expected it to be over in weeks, rather like what many people thought would happen when Covid first arrived.

I did actually make the comparison between Covid and the First World War early in the outbreak and my goodness was I right. So if you can find something important happening and draw the obvious conclusions you may do very well with your investments.

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