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Using buy signals to time investments – 50-plus shares signalled from the QV portfolio

June 4, 2021

The chart above is of an ETF stuffed with high-flying technology shares. They had a brilliant lockdown but have since been hit by a wave of profit-taking. As you can see from the chart above the move from peak to trough in some three months was over 26pc. Back in the day they would have called this a bear market. Since then the market has been trying to rally, which fits in with the pattern established since 2009 of a long-running secular bull market interrupted by setbacks which typically last around three months, albeit that they may turn into longer periods of consolidation.

I have chosen OGIG because it is almost a proxy for the Quentinvest for Shares portfolio. It’s composition is different to that of indices like the Nasdaq 100 which are technology-rich but have other kinds of shares including those in slower growing businesses that never make it into the QV portfolio.

The setback was triggered by a sharp rise in US long-dated bond yields, which was itself triggered by expectations that a successful vaccination programme would lead to a sharp rebound in economic activity, which might lead to higher inflation and interest rates. I don’t especially think it will but whoever knows.

My over-riding impression is that the secular bull market is intact. The technology revolution is still happening, probably at an accelerating rate. I expect the shares which have dominated the bull market to date to continue to perform well. What we are seeing at the moment is shares crouching to spring, which is why I am continuing to make recommendations. QV is a win in the end strategy. In order to win we need to stay in the game.

I have decided I am not going to be too slavish in following buy signals. This is partly to keep the numbers manageable and partly because despite a fairly strong showing by the indices the stock market still feels convalescent rather than roaring ahead. If the indices and individual shares really start to break higher I will probably become more aggressive.

Below are some 50 shares which have given buy signals based on breakouts, monthly moving averages (programmatic) and buying the green (a green candlestick either after a red or after another green).

Share selections

Applied Materials/ AMAT. Buy @ $139

Arista Networks/ ANET Buy @ $349

Ashtead/ AHT Buy @ 5200p

Berkshire Hathaway B/ BRK.B Buy @ $291

Brunello Cucinelli./ BC Buy @ $48.96

Carl Zeiss Meditec/ AFX Buy @ $149

Cloudshare/ NET Buy @ $83

Corporate Travel Management/ CTD Buy @ A$21.99

Croda International/ CRDA. Buy @ 6968p

Dechra Pharmaceuticals/ DPH. Buy @ 4156p

Diageo/ DGE. Buy @ 3396p

Diploma/ DPLM. Buy @ 2896p

Domo Inc. DOMO. Buy @ $66.50

Dropbox/ DBX. Buy @ $28.50

Fortinet/ FTNT. Buy @ $219.50

Gamestop/ GME Buy @ $254

Games Workshop/ GAW Buy @ 11,900p

Genscript Biotech/ 1548. Buy @ HK$31.15

Halma/ HLMA. Buy @ 2640p

HelloFresh/ HFG. Buy @ Euro80.16

IDEXX Laboratories/ IDXX. Buy @ $557

I-mab Laboratories/ IMAB Buy @ $78

Intuit/ INTU. Buy @ $458

JD Sports/ JD. Buy @ 934p

Lam Research Corp/ LRCX. Buy @ $652

Li Auto/ LI $25.50

Logitech International/ LOGI. Buy @ $132.5

L’Oreal/ OR. Buy @ Euro376

Meidon Auto/ 1268. Buy @ HK$41.40

Nasdaq Inc./ NDAQ. Buy @ $168

Netease/ NTES Buy @ $114

Nvidia/ NVDA. Buy @ $704

Pool Corporation/ POOL. Buy @ $434

Progeny Corporation/ PGNY. Buy @ $62.50

Prologis/ PLD. Buy @ $121

Roblox/ RBLX. Buy @ $102.95

S4 Capital/ SFOR. Buy @ 587p CRM. Buy @ $235

S&P 500 ETF/ SPY. Buy @ $421

Spirax-Sarco/ SPX. Buy @ 12,945

Up Fintech Holdings/ TIGR Buy @ $27.52

Upstart Holdings/ UPST. Buy @ $179.50

Veeva Systems/ VEEV. Buy @ $286

West Pharmaceutical Servicls/ WST. Buy @ $333

Wuxi Bio/ 2269. Buy @ HK$121

YouGov/ YOU. Buy @ 1110p

Zai Laboratories/ ZAI. Buy @ $172

Zebra Techronologies/ ZBRA. Buy @ $514

Zoom Video Technologies/ ZM. Buy @ $338

My count for the recommendations above is 50. It would have been more on a more literal interpretation of all the buy signals given by breakouts, the moving average and buying the green. This means there is a considerable element of judgment in the selections. Hopefully that is a good thing. As always I favour shares showing strength.

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