Aeons ago, between 1965 and 1983, in the days when people watched the Dow Jones index, it hit a wall around 1,000. For nearly 20 years, it could not break decisively through 1,000. When it finally did, it unleashed the greatest bull market in US stocks in history. A bull market, which is arguably still running, over 40 glorious years later, boosted by a US economy which has embraced the technology revolution as fervently as the medieval Italian states embraced the Renaissance at the dawn of the modern era.
Now, in a humbler version of that stasis, the leveraged Nasdaq tracking ETF, QQQ3, has become stuck, unable to break through a level around 280, 300 in round numbers. Six times in five years, it has tried and failed to break through this level. When it does, we can expect excitement. I don’t know when but I know it will and my guess is that it will be sooner rather than later.
Palantir is the quintessential high valuation, high growth stock. Bulls love the story and the performance, both of which are incredible. Bears reel at the highest valuation ever seen for a business with serious scale. Both PER and market value to sales are off the scale.
This makes the stock and others like it, think Credo Technology, super volatile. if you are a believer like me this creates opportunities. Periodically the shares will plummet, grit your teeth and buy some. Will Palantir be valued in dollar trillions one day. I think so.
I read a bearish piece on Palantir the other day. While reading it I was astonished to discover that OpenAI, the company behind Chat GPT, is valued at over $500bn; that is quite something for a stock that four years ago was little more than a twinkle in the eye. The writer of the piece compared OpenAI to Palantir and concluded that the latter, with much lower sales, was overpriced. To me that is detail. The key point is that we are in an era when a company can grow from zero to half a trillion in four years. WOW!
My impression is that high growth technology stocks are as hard to value as Bitcoin in an era of accelerating technological progress. We need to focus on the fundamentals. Look at these Palantir numbers.
This is a breathtaking performance. If we forget about the valuation and just look at the business. It is beyond amazing. US revenue, the bulk of Palantir’s business, has almost quintupled in three years! Growth share investors have to own this stock and, if the price plummets, buy more. And look at this for a statement of intent.
We believe that our most significant growth is still yet to come.
Alex Karp, CEO, Palantir, shareholders’ letter, Q2 2025, 8 August 2025
Should you sell your house and put your wife on the street to buy more Palantir shares. Maybe!
Note that the growth explosion is a recent development.
Are these guys ambitious or are they?
We are working towards a future where all large institutions in the United States and its allies abroad are running significant segments of their operations, if not their operations as a whole, on Palantir.
Most other companies are targeting small segments of the market.
We see and intend to capture the whole.
Alex Karp, CEO, Palantir, shareholders’ letter, Q2 2025, 8 August 2025
Similar arguments apply to all the technology shares in my Top 20. Keep the faith and keep buying.
Share Recommendations
Broadcom AVGO
Credo Technology. CRDO
Palantir Technologies. PLTR
GeneDX. WGS
Sea Limited SE
The analysts get it wrong because they spend too much time with their spreadsheets. Throw them away and feel what is happening. This is significant, this is incredible, and it has a long way to go. My eight-year-old grandson just wrote some lyrics for a song (I am guessing he has the makings of a serious talent). What is also extraordinary is that, using an app, he was able not only to set the words to music but also to hear what they would sound like when sung. AI is already amazing, and it is just getting started.
Just a reminder of where Credo Technology is going.
“I’m proud of Credo’s achievements in fiscal 2025. For the year, the Company delivered record-breaking financial results, with revenue up 126% year over year to $436.8 million. The Company’s results were fueled by surging demand for our innovative, reliable, and energy-efficient high-performance connectivity solutions. We continue to see growing demand for our solutions across hyperscaler customers to power advanced AI services, a trend we believe will persist for the foreseeable future.”
Bill Brennan, CEO, Credo Technology, Q4 2025, 2 June 2025
And let’s just have a quick look at one of the all-time great US share charts. Even if you didn’t know that Broadcom’s AI business is exploding, you would want to own these shares.
I am adding two shares to my Top 20: Sea Limited and GeneDX. They fit all my criteria: explosive growth, huge opportunity, great story, great growth.
Sea Limited is a big player, the big player, in developing markets like Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Brazil and is growing like topsy.
The momentum from our strong start to 2025 has continued into the second quarter. All 3 of our businesses have delivered robust, healthy growth, giving us greater confidence of delivering another great year. Shopee’s GMV [gross merchandise value] grew 25% year-on-year in the first half, and we expect this growth momentum to carry into Q3. Monee’s loan book continues to expand rapidly while maintaining a healthy NPL [non-performing loans] ratio. And for Garena, we now expect full year bookings to grow more than 30% year-on-year.
Given the high potential of our market and the stage of our business now, we will continue to prioritize growth. We still see huge opportunities in our markets to serve many more users and better many more lives with technology, expanding both our addressable market and capturing more market share will pave the way for us to maximize our long-term profitability.
At the same time, our company has reached a stage where we can pursue growth opportunities while improving profitability. By being disciplined and cost efficient, we have turned all 3 businesses EBITDA positive since the second half of last year, and we are accumulating cash each quarter as we scale. We remain committed to growing profitably with a strong balance sheet that enables us to capture future opportunities.
Xiaodong Li, CEO, Sea Limited, Q2 2025, 12 August 2025
GeneDX is equally exciting.
Today, I’m incredibly proud to share that our team’s work not only met but exceeded expectations, achieving a major milestone of delivering over $100 million in revenue in a single quarter for the first time. Our strong second quarter performance was driven by our core business, underscoring its strength and resilience. These results, coupled with the ever-expanding opportunities ahead, demonstrate that we’re just beginning to deliver on the promise of how our genomic technology can fundamentally transform health care.
Our vision is for a world where genetic information is delivered as early as possible to prevent unnecessary suffering and lead to healthier lives for all. Today, we’re waiting for symptoms to develop and for disease to progress, not only over the course of months, but over the course of years. We’ve never been more resolute about our commitment to radically change this. Shifting from sick care to health care, driving better health outcomes, better economic value and a better health care system for us all.
Katherine Steuland, CEO, GeneDX, Q2 2025, 29 July 2025
Prospects look super exciting.
As we sit here today, business fundamentals have never been stronger, and our serviceable market continues to expand. We remain on track to deliver our full year guide of at least 30% year-over-year volume growth. We reported 23,102 exome and genome tests in the second quarter of 2025, up 28% compared to the second quarter of last year. The first half of the year has continued to play out as anticipated, providing conviction in the back half and with several catalysts to come.
This quarter, the majority of growth came from existing docs, and we are seeing strong early signals that new indications like cerebral palsy are driving increased same-store sale. And importantly, our expansion into new indications makes GeneDx even more attractive to new account targets. In the back half of this year and beyond, we’ll begin to layer on new growth curves from the NICU [neonatal intensive care unit] and from pediatric immunologists and other specialists and from the pediatricians backed by AAP [American Acamemy of Pediatrics] and from newborn screening and from international contribution. And of course, all of that is supplemented by the long-term potential to establish a meaningful diversified revenue stream by putting the unparalleled nature of the GeneDx data to work for health care partners to accelerate drug discovery and development.
Over the last 10 years, we’ve moved from pioneering exome and genome to gaining the hard-earned trust of the expert community to developing the best-in-class product to becoming the largest provider of rare disease diagnosis. All of this has established unique credibility for GeneDx to lead in all of these new markets.
Kevin Feeley, CFO, GeneDX, Q2 2025, 29 July 2025
