Above is a weekly chart of QQQ3, a leveraged tracker of the Nasdaq 100. Most interesting are the deep dives into negative territory, which have been reliable lead indicators of strong upward moves by the indices.
At the moment, we have a deep dive but no buy signal. I have already suggested that there is no need to wait. Given the outstanding background fundamentals, it seems safe to buy into this decline.
Weekly Coppock gives a junior buy signal. For a more important signal, we need to look at a monthly candlestick chart.
The first buy signal is a notional one. It was too soon to calculate Coppock, but if there had been more back history, it would have shown Coppock as rising. There have been four buy signals, all good ones.
We are awaiting a new buy signal, but the monthly Coppock will soon be negative and, in my view, in buying territory. In very round numbers, the Nasdaq Composite index (see chart below) is up 400 times since 1974. If we could calculate back that far, the Nasdaq 100 would probably be up 1,000 times! That is a hell of a secular bull market. No sign it ended in 2025; au contraire. This bull is still picking up speed.
There is no need to be too missish about timing the buy signals. We do need to choose the right stocks. Sorry about the funny language. I read (and latterly have even been writing with my tribute hat on) so many Georgette Heyer books that it is as though I live in Regency England.
This is half a century of the Nasdaq Composite with its attendant Coppock Curve. There have been 10 classic (Coppock negative) buy signals and they have worked well. Coppock is falling presently but not especially near giving a new signal. This confirms the impression of a US stock market lacking strong upwards momentum.
This chart is attuned to the performance of US technology shares but amped up with three times leverage and daily rebalancing. There have been only three occasions in the last 15 years when the Coppock Curve has turned negative. Each subsequent buy signal has been important. Coppock is close to becoming negative for a fourth time.
The first signal is notional because there are no Coppock calculations but it would certainly have been negative in early 2009 and begun rising shortly thereafter. I called the start of a new bull market in my dead trees publications, Quentum Leap and Chart Breakout, in March 2009.
We could relate these signals to the fundamentals. The first bull run from 2009 to 2015 was the Internet boom as smart phones, emails and social media became ubiquitous in our lives.The second bull run from 2016 to 2021 was the cloud computing era, with software delivered as a service (SaaS) as vast quantities of data were stored in the cloud, software was bought on subscription and upgraded automatically without any additional payment.
We might imagine that the third bull run, when it starts, could be linked to the spread of latest generation artificial intelligence but maybe there will be some other driver (to coin a phrase since robo-taxis are in the mix for this). What we can conclude from this chart is that the next bull market has not yet begun.
Above is a very long-term chart of TECL with each candlestick covering a year of trading. It shows clearly how a massive consolidation is forming, which could support a major advance. The next bull market, likely to be signalled by a decisive break through $100, could be the start of an exciting bull run. There is a possibility that a monster bull market lies ahead.
One feature of a bubbling bull market is plenty of IPOs of exciting companies, new to the stock market. I expect exactly that with the next bull run. We are at an early stage of the complete reinvention of the way business, warfare, government, entertainment and goodness knows what else is conducted. It will be like the 1920s when fossil fuels, iron and steel, chemicals, modern retailing, mass manufacturing, talking movies, radio and air transport, washing machines, vacuum cleaners and much more were transforming the world the Victorians knew into a world not unfamiliar to us. Hopefully, clever central bankers will help us to avoid a crash if investors become too excited.
The big problem for me and quite a few of my subscribers will be surviving to be part of all this excitement. Que sera, sera. No point in worrying about it. It will still be exciting even if I am not here, and I am enjoying the ride so far.
