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Freedom + Adam Smith = Wealth & Happiness

June 12, 2025

I just had this incredible thought. Imagine if all the monsters were swept away, Putin in Russia, Xi Jinping in China, Kim Jong Un in North Korea, Khameini in Iran, Maduro in Venezuela, Diaz-Canel in Cuba, whoever is in charge in Afghanistan and all the other gangsters/ religious fanatics that end up running countries.

Imagine the whole world run by leaders who believe in Adam Smith and individual freedom. What a paradise that would be? Imagine a world run by leaders who know that the best way to spread happiness and prosperity is to leave well alone. Not only do people left to their own devices do a surprisingly good job, but the people who set themselves up as knowing better than the rest of us are themselves just people. Worse than that, they are bossy, know-all types who want to stick a finger in every pie and invariably make things worse while blaming others for their cock-ups.

For some reason, again and again in politics it is the scum that rises to the top. It is as though voters were only given a choice of long-term residents of high-security prisons. Looking around the world, the people in charge could hardly be worse, and it is particularly annoying because it is so obvious what needs to be done.

W.E. Gladstone nailed it in one sentence – ‘Let money fructify in the hands of the people’. Don’t let politicians anywhere near the money bags because it will end up in a car crash every time. These venal, self-serving s***s should all be sent back to prison.

Funnily enough, when I googled the world’s worst leaders, the search came up with Macron. You begin to understand how we are in such a mess. How can Macron be compared with mass murderers, for whom prosperity and individual liberty are dirty words?

It is a bit like all those lefty loonies who see Israel and even America as the antichrist and have nothing to say about Maduro’s catastrophic reign in Venezuela or Kim Jong Un and his city-sized prison camps in North Korea. Why don’t the protesters charter a plane, fly to North Korea and protest there? We know why, because that would be rather a dangerous thing to do.

Coreweave And The Profitability Debate

Coreweave says it will be profitable. Some analysts say that will never happen. One investment bank says Coreweave belongs to its creditors, not its shareholders. I am not interested in the details of the debate. What I can see is that if Coreweave is fundamentally profitable, its spectacular growth is inspiring. My attitude to people is that they are good guys unless I have hard evidence to the contrary. I feel the same about Coreweave. Why not just give them the benefit of the doubt? They created their business model and are convinced it works. The simplest approach is to believe them.

The true risk with Coreweave is that non-believers may miss out on the most exciting investment.

Before you decide, read what the most bearish analyst is saying.

CoreWeave (CRWV, Financials) dropped 6% Tuesday after DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria reaffirmed an Underperform rating and raised red flags over the company’s leveraged financing model and residual asset risks.

The AI hyperscaler, which rents GPU-based compute infrastructure and maintains strong ties to Nvidia (NVDA, Financials), has surged over 300% since its IPO debut in March. But Luria said the company’s pro forma financing structure offers little return for current equity holders, noting that “there is no upfront equity, and no returns to current equity holders during the contract.”

CoreWeave’s proposed infrastructure model assumes a 15% equity input and 85% loan-to-value financing, but Luria highlighted reliance on high-cost debtvendor financing, unsecured notes, and credit lines with rates as high as 9.5%. DA Davidson estimates the company may face $590 million in extra debt servicing costs.

Luria also flagged GPU depreciation risks, citing Amazon Web Services’ recent 50% price cut on H200 chips. He projected that resale values could fall below 25% of original prices within four years, undermining assumptions of residual asset worth.

The company’s own materials assumed 9% loan rates, but filings show a blended 12.5% cost. The entire value of the enterprise is owned by the debt holders, Luria wrote, discounting future asset values and projecting equity could be worth under $5 per share within four years translating to an enterprise value of less than $7.5 billion.

Luria said the only way to justify near-term optimism is if CoreWeave can raise more than $10 billion in equity at current valuations. That could support two years of buildout, he wrote, though it would significantly dilute current shareholders.

GuruFocus, 12 June 2025

I bet the guys at Coreweave are dying to prove this guy wrong. He is so bearish that this almost amounts to a bear raid, which is a rite of passage for so many high-flying companies.

I have been checking out Luria. He was a big bear of Nvidia at $90, saying they would be unable to maintain their lead in AI chips. I think this guy gets out of bed on the wrong side each morning. Coreweave shares were described as slumping after his attack. On the day of his comments, they closed down 3.6%!

Share Recommendations

Coreweave. CRWV

Palantir. PLTR

I don’t know who is winning in the race between Palantir and Coreweave, but Palantir has been hitting new highs, and the news flow, apart from Luria, for both companies could hardly be more supportive.

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