Awesome Figures Trigger A Bear Trap For Microsoft

This is what I call a classic Coppock chart using monthly candlesticks as Edwin Coppock intended. Look out for what happens to the shares between blue Coppock buy signals and red Coppock sell/ caution signals. The moves are all positive and capture much of the gain in Microsoft shares since 2007, while virtually eliminating risk.

The Microsoft chart has been looking threatening almost since Coppock turned down in May 2024, and Coppock is still falling, but following an excellent set of figures, it seems probable that the bear phase is over and a new bull run is beginning.

A bear trap is what chartists call a bearish configuration, which doesn’t follow through but abruptly changes to bullish just as appears to be happening.

Analysts are studying each report carefully, especially those from tech giants like Microsoft, looking for reassurance that there is no slowdown in the technology boom. The company could hardly have been more specific.

“Cloud and AI are the essential inputs for every business to expand output, reduce costs, and accelerate growth,” said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft. “From AI infra and platforms to apps, we are innovating across the stack to deliver for our customers.”

“We delivered a strong quarter with Microsoft Cloud revenue of $42.4 billion, up 20% (up 22% in constant currency) year-over-year driven by continued demand for our differentiated offerings,” said Amy Hood, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Microsoft.

Microsoft earnings release, Q3 2025, 30 April 2025

Demand is not an issue.

When it comes to cloud migrations, we saw accelerating demand with customers in every industry, from Abercrombie & Fitch, to Coca-Cola and ServiceNow expanding their footprints on Azure. And we remain the cloud of choice for customers’ mission-critical VMware, SAP and Oracle workloads with more regional availability than any other hyperscaler.

We’re also excited about the next frontier in cloud systems with quantum; in addition to putting our quantum stack on machines from our partners we’re also making real progress on a path to a utility scale quantum computer with the introduction of Majorana 1.

When it comes to data and analytics, we have deeply integrated our AI platform with our data stack. PostgreSQL usage accelerated for the third consecutive quarter, and it is now used by nearly 60% of the Fortune 500, including companies like BMW and BNY Mellon. Cosmos DB revenue growth also accelerated again this quarter and remains the go-to database for globally distributed NoSQL workloads at any scale. It is used by customers in every industry like CarMax, DocuSign, NTT Data and OpenAI.

This quarter, we also saw analytics consumption accelerate. Microsoft Fabric has more than 21,000 paid customers, up 80% year-over-year. Fabric brings together data workloads like data warehousing, data science, real-time intelligence, along with Power BI into one end-to-end solution.

Real-time intelligence is now the fastest-growing workload in Fabric with 40% of customers already using it in just five months since becoming generally available, all up more than 50% of Fabric customers like Amorepacific, Louisiana state government and Petrobras use three or more workloads. And the amount of data in our multi-cloud data lake, OneLake, has grown more than 6x over the past year.

Now on to AI platform and tools. Foundry is the agent in AI app factory. It’s now used by developers at over 70,000 enterprises and digital natives from Atomicwork to Epic, Fujitsu and Gainsight to H&R Block and LG Electronics to design, customize and manage their AI apps and agents.

We processed over 100 trillion tokens this quarter, up 5x year-over-year, including a record 50 trillion tokens last month alone. And four months in over 10,000 organizations have used our new agent service to build, deploy and scale their agents.

Satya Nadella, CEO, Q3 2025, 30 April 2025

There is no point in reading the tea leaves. The standout feature is that Microsoft is one of the world’s largest technology companies, with one of the world’s great CEOs, Satya Nadella, at the helm. It is operating at the top of its game in a world at an early stage in a transformational phase of the technology revolution. It could hardly be more exciting.

Below is a chart of Microsoft using weekly candlesticks to do the Coppock calculations, something Edwin Coppock never did.

I have only taken buy signals when Coppock turns up from negative. There have been seven such signals since 2018, and, over time, they have all been rewarding except the latest, which has just happened. I think this is a good call, and Microsoft shares are a strong buy. It is not so much the numbers as the positioning of the business. Microsoft sits at the heart of the technology revolution and has the leadership, the people, the money and the customer base to make things happen.

Without companies like Microsoft, there would be no technology revolution.

Share Recommendations

Microsoft. MSFT

Wisdomtree Nasdaq 100 3X Leveraged Daily Rebalanced QQQ3

Revenue for the quarter was $70.1bn. When I was young (when aye was a bo’oy), there were no companies in the world valued at $1bn, and now a single company has a turnover fast approaching $1bn a day!

The sheer financial power of Microsoft is like something the corporate world has never seen before, and the scale of innovation, the brain power being unleashed is beyond imagination.

The success of Microsoft is important for at least two reasons. It is exciting news for Microsoft shareholders who are benefiting from an aggressive share buyback programme and a business that is scaling rapidly. It is also good news for ETFs like QQQ3, which have a heavy weighting of shares in megacaps like Microsoft.

I have included a double smiley in April 2025 for a buy signal on the brink of happening. It feels right to me, even if I am jumping the gun. I think now is a great time to be buying QQQ3, and if they pull back, it will be an even better time. This bull market has wobbled, but it feels full of power to me. This is the Renaissance or the Industrial Revolution, whatever you like, hunter-gatherers settling in farms and cities, but on steroids. This is Man, Desmond Morris’s Naked Ape, reaching for the stars.